Murdered in Another Municipality: Vectors of Homicide in Mexico
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Abstract
Introduction: This study examines the contagion patterns of intentional homicide in Mexico between 2016 and 2022, in the context of clashes between rival organized crime groups. Objective: To determine which of the two opposing hypotheses about the spread of homicides in Mexico has greater empirical support. We consider: a) the centrifugal hypothesis, which posits that organized crime groups can move their activities to new regions, spreading the conflict, and b) the centripetal hypothesis, which suggests that when one criminal organization attacks another in a different region, the resulting violence feeds back into the conflict in its region of origin. Methodology: Spatial regression techniques and modified spatial matrices are employed to assess these hypotheses. To define each spatial unit's neighbors, the disparity between victims' places of residence and death is utilized. Conclusions: Our analysis strongly supports the centrifugal hypothesis, albeit not entirely dismissing the centripetal perspective.
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