Territorial planning and climate change: design of public policies and their effectiveness in Ecuador

Abstract

Introduction: In Ecuador, territorial planning as a State policy in the current Constitution—constitutes a cross-cutting axis for land management and development planning. Given its direct impact on both urban and rural areas, this process requires a strategic approach that incorporates, among other aspects, the variable of climate change, whose effects significantly alter territorial dynamics. These impacts range from the loss of productive capacities and temperature variations to increased flooding and the emergence of new risk scenarios. Objective: This research analyses the articulation between territorial planning and climate change in Ecuador, with the aim of evaluating the effectiveness of public policies that integrate this relationship into territorial planning instruments. Methodology: The study is based on a nested analysis of policy design, focused on the coherence and consistency between objectives and instruments, in order to assess their effectiveness. To this end, the current territorial planning instruments are reviewed, evaluating the extent to which the climate variable is incorporated, as well as the alignment between the stated goals and the tools used to achieve them. Conclusions: The incorporation of climate change into territorial planning was found to be limited. Additionally, the lack of technical calibration of the instruments, together with inconsistencies between objectives and the means employed, reveal a structural failure in public policies. This disconnect undermines the capacity of territorial planning to anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change in the Ecuadorian territory.